THE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES PART.3

The Ecevit government has postponed its decision five times over the last
six months in awarding the Akkuyu tender, the most recent being on April 21
2000. A final decision in awarding the contract to one of the three bidding
groups: - NPI ( Franco-German), Westinghouse (USA) and Atomic Energy of
Canada (AECL) -is expected to be made on July 24.
However, the opposition to the project still continues inside and outside
Turkey. While there are Turkish coalition politicians who support the
Akkuyu project but concerns continue to be raised in neighboring countries.
The recent position adopted by the Turkish Treasury was an important
factor, which contributed to the latest postponement.
 

(a) Academic and Activist  opposition in Turkey

The opposition to Akkuyu continues inside Turkey where three prominent
Turkish academics have queried the efficacy of the whole project and the
dangers posed by nuclear energy.
 An article appearing in the Turkish daily newspaper Cumhuriyet on March
11, stated that
Professor Ibrahim Kavrakoglu, the director of the National Energy
committee, had presented a report to the Prime Minister's office and to
members of the National Security Council strongly opposing the proposed
Akkuyu facility.
He condemned it by pointing out that certain projections made in the 1970's
had not been realised. These were: - " (1) that nuclear energy raises the
issue of reducing Turkey's tourism revenues; (2) nuclear energy is an
expensive way in producing electricity; (3) the problem of nuclear waste
has not been solved; (4) natural gas is most rational alternative to
nuclear energy;  (5) Turkey has failed to fully exploit the potential of
hydro-electric energy."
Kavrakoglu warned that " Not only would a nuclear power station be
incompatible with the interests of the country, but it would present many
new risks. I urge you to re-think such an investment that would endanger
future generations."

Professor Mustapha Erdik, the Head of Seismic research institute of
Bogacizi University, prepared a report for Turkey's State Electricity
Company (TEAS) in November 1999 querying the
methodology of a 1990 study and that " further earthquake research" was
needed. Erdik's report
" Was suppressed and was not made available to the government prior to or
during its March 1st announcement on Akkuyu."

Another Turkish academic Professor Tolga Yalman, a former member of the
Advisory Board for Atomic Energy in the Prime Minister's office and Nuclear
Security committee, was critical of the Turkish government's infatuation
with nuclear power. He reminded the government that it had signed the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Comprehensive Test Ban Treaties in 1981 and
1997. He was concerned that the danger " of the nuclear arms of the 1950's
were only recognised in the 1970's."

On April 7 anti-nuclear activists protested in Mersin, a city located in
Southern Turkey, where the police detained 85 of them. They were arrested
by police for refusing " to stop distributing pamphlets condemning the
project." An Anadolu News Agency report of April 7 referred to a press
statement issued by the Electricity Engineers Chambers Executive (EMO) who
accused  " security forces [of violating] the law and dispersed the
demonstrators by using truncheons."
The press statement asked the question " why did these people face violence
when they used their legal right to protest against something which causes
cancer and what is no longer used by developed countries?."
The arrest and ill-treatment of ordinary Turkish citizens expressing its
concerns over Akkuyu and human rights generally is something Ankara cannot
ignore in its accession talks with the European Union. On an official visit
to Turkey between April 5-8, German President Johannes Rau commented that "
There must be a further improvement in human rights in Turkey despite
recent progress" and that Ankara " respect its Kurdish minority and honour
its citizens' human rights." The new Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer,
a former judge of the Constitutional Court, knows of the importance of
Turkey adhering to democratic principles and improving its human rights
record.

(b) Turkish political views and neighbours concerns

On March 9 Enis Oksuz, the Turkish Minister of Transport, " attacked
environmental opponents of nuclear power in Turkey and defended nuclear
power as a first step in developing a nuclear weapons program." In another
news report of March 22, the Macedonian News Agency quoting German news
sources mentioned that Oksuz stressing that Turkey had the sacred duty to
arm for its defence with nuclear weapons. Oksuz denied making such
statements and considered them a " pure fantasy."
The Turkish Ambassador to Canada Erhan Ogut in an interview with Ottawa's
Globe and Mail newspaper on April 14 ignored Oksuz's remarks. Ogut
mentioned that Turkey had " signed international agreements and a bilateral
one with Canada pledging not to use the nuclear technology for military
purposes." He also stressed that Turkey was taking decisive steps " to
modernize its economy and join the [E.U]."
AECL Vice President Bill Hancox considered the whole episode as "
mischief-making" by those opposed to the deal. Obviously Hancox was
concerned in keeping the Canadian bid worth around $3 billion still alive.

Another report of the Macedonian News Agency on March 17 quoting the
Turkish newspaper Milliyet stated that Germany vetoed the export credits
Hermes (Export -Import bank) was to provide to Siemens. Moreover the news
report indicated that Germany would not support 11 plans in total which
included the Akkuyu facility. Therefore Siemens would have to find its own
finance without these export credit guarantees. The German Greens has made
it very clear that the German Government would not support energy projects
such as nuclear power, which are problematical from an ecological
standpoint. This makes the NPI bid questionable.

On March 20 Macedonian News Agency reported that the Turkish newspaper
Radikal had censured Environment Minister Fevzi Aytekin for supporting the
Akkuyu project. Once he considered the " nuclear power plant [as]
dangerous." What a policy shift for an individual who was once considered a
tough "environmentalist." He stated in March 1999 that " those who want to
construct nuclear power plant in Turkey close nuclear plants in their own
countries."

There are neighboring countries that are concerned about the Akkuyu
project. On March 3, Ioannis Cassoulides, the Cyprus Foreign Minister, told
the BBC that his country opposed it on environmental grounds because " the
site was in an earthquake zone."
The Greek Foreign Minister George Papandreou told the BBC on March 7 that
he urged his Turkish counterpart Ismael Cem that " Turkey should rethink
its plans for Akkuyu." Greece opposed it on environmental grounds and was
worried about its impact on tourism.
 A recent news story published in the English edition of the Athens
newspaper Kathimerini and the Greek-Australian newspaper Neos Kosmos of
Melbourne reported that George Papandreou responded to New Democracy Deputy
Ioannis Varvitsiotis question in the Greek Boule (Parliament) over Akkuyu.
Papandreou stated that " Greece had lodged demarches at the foreign
ministries of the countries of origin of the companies participating in the
bids to construct the plant." Neos Kosmos also alluded to Papandreou
declaring that the Akkuyu issue had been discussed at the highest levels of
the EU and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Perhaps the Greek
Government is using its diplomatic "influence" in Washington, Paris,
London, Berlin, Ottawa and Tokyo to have the AECL,Westinghouse-Mitsubishi
and NPI bids cancelled. This would be a difficult task under any
circumstance but one that maybe worth trying. Athens would view the Akkuyu
project with some concern should it receive the green light.
It will give Turkey the opportunity to develop its own nuclear arsenal,
which would alter the military balance and fuel a nuclear arms race in the
Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East regions.
Considering the controversy surrounding Akkuyu, Greek-Turkish relations
continue to improve on a political, economic, business and cultural levels.
 

 (c) The views of the Turkish Treasury

The Turkish Government announced on March 1 that the winning bid was to be
announced on March 10. This was deferred to April 7 with a final decision
pending on April 21. A final decision is now to be made on July 24. This
has become very embarrassing for the Turkish government, as they
continually postpone their decision. The views of the Turkish Treasury were
an important factor in the postponement of April 21.

On April 4 Anadolu News Agency carried the headline ' Tender for Akkuyu
Nuclear Power Plant- Consortium officials uneasy about a statement by
Treasury ' created a sense of apprehension in the minds of the consortia
officials. A Treasury Undersecretariat statement mentioned " they could not
give finance guarantee to the Akkuyu Power Plant for the year 2000." The
consortia were dismayed at such a statement where they were " required to
give a 100 credit guarantee..."

Another Turkish newspaper Yeni Binyil displayed the headline on April 8 '
Nuclear Issue is Totally a fiasco' conveys an ineptness on the part of
Ankara. The article does mention that TEAS was to hold a press conference
regarding the tender. However due to Ecevit's and Cumhur Ersumer, the
Minister of Energy, last minute intervention, the meeting had been
cancelled without any explanation being offered.

On the day that Ankara was supposed to announce the winning bid on March
10, Yeni Binyil reported on some funny business involved in the tender
process. The consortia " can use the guarantee of a foreign and Turkish
bank which the Turkish Electricity Production and Transmission Incorp
(TEAS) approves." The NPI group " had submitted only one letter of
guarantee and this letter of guarantee was given by a French bank." The
right thing for TEAS should have been to exclude NPI bid.
However TEAS " requested the letter of guarantee 9 days later and given an
additional 15 days."
If the bid was given to NPI, then the other 2 consortia " can file a law
suit."
Unnamed sources close to the Energy Ministry told Turkish Daily News that
Treasury requested a delay till mid-April," when it would send a letter to
TEAS offering its guidance on the project."
It is obvious Treasury is concerned about the financial viability of the
project, at a time " given the limits imposed on its ability to guarantee
foreign debt under the IMF-sponsored disinflation program." Furthermore, "
the nuclear plan cannot be considered before 2001."
 Ersumer was annoyed at the position adopted by Treasury. He told
journalists on April 22, that he couldn't understand why it had declined to
provide an assurance for the project and the " Treasury?should make an
explanation."

It can be argued that the views of the Turkish Treasury were an important
factor influencing the Prime and Energy Ministers' to postpone the tender
till July 24. Such a position can be supported by articles appearing in
Anadolu News Agency on April 21 titled " Energy Minister says tender for
Akkuyu nuclear power plant could be postponed for three months" and the
English edition of Kathimerini titled  "Turkey's economic stability program
takes precedence over Akkuyu plant. Government said to postpone nuclear
plant due to financial restraints imposed by IMF."
The decision of the Turkish Treasury not to provide financial guarantees
was supported by IMF and World Bank officials. In fact energy experts of
the World Bank urged companies interested in nuclear plant construction "
[to] apply to the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agreement (MIGA)
instead of Treasury." This move will allow the Turkish Treasury to reduce
inflation from 66% to 20-25% in 2000, 10% in 2001 and 5% in 2002 and to
implement economic reforms of the IMF in agriculture, pensions,
privatisation in the key sectors of telecommunications and energy and
reducing public debt.

In conclusion, the postponement in awarding the tender for the Akkuyu
project shows the shilly-shallying on the part of Ankara. Ecevit is mindful
of the opposition to the project inside and outside Turkey and does not
want to jeopardise his nation's accession talks with the EU.
He also has to consider the extreme views of some Cabinet Ministers who
favour the development of nuclear weapons and to reconcile this with the
concerns expressed in neighboring countries.
The views of the Turkish Treasury were instrumental in the latest
postponement decision, which will allow the Turkish Government to implement
the economic reforms sought by the IMF.
 

STAVROS T.STAVRIDIS
HISTORIAN/RESEARCHER
GREEK-AUSTRALIAN ARCHIVE
RMIT UNIVERSITY
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA.
 

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